by Jane Dwinell and Dana Dwinell-Yardley

Here we are, at the beginning of a new year. Cold Vermont Januarys are great for dreaming, so as we head into 2009, the two of us have been thinking. What will make this a great year for our state? What changes do we want to see in 2009? What are our hopes for Vermont and her people? Here are our wishes for an independent 2009.

It amazes me how fast the culture has shifted from "bling" to "thrift" as a response to the now-official economic downturn. Even the mainstream media suddenly offers advice on, say, substituting cheaper fizzy wine for real Champaign in your holiday parties. But as the USA slowly discovers that it is a lot less wealthy than it imagined, the real work on how to live within our means has only begun.

In my continuing test of getting around Vermont without use of my own car, I put together the most elaborate day ever last Sunday. With five carpool legs, and a bicycle ride to and from Montpelier at the beginning and end of the day, I got from my house in East Montpelier to Plainfield village to a homestead in Plainfield to a farm in Cabot and back again.

I've had much more complicated travel arrangements when hitchhiking, and people who commute by hitchhiking probably have elaborate logistics every day. For me,  I think this is the first time I'd choreographed the intricate, precisely timed sets of rides ahead of time.

Auto Industry bail out - why?

I got rear-ended by a sweet little old lady last week.

My 1995 Subaru Legacy is now totaled.

I bought it for a song four years ago - the car has run like a champ ever since. Oil changes, new tires, the occasional tweak here, nudge there.

I'm OK. She's OK. No one's kids were in either car. Phew.

My neighbor and good friend, who also happens to be my insurance agent, gets some business. Nice.

by Dana Dwinell-Yardley

It's December 1. The snow is piling up outside as I type. Yesterday afternoon I finally hung up my commuter bicycle in the shed. My bike served me well from April to October, as we made the trek to work from Montpelier to Northfield, 10.5 miles away. Despite only working in Northfield one or two days a week, I pedaled more than 500 miles this summer!

(Updated below)

I'm putting together a list of important books related to the world's energy situation, its consequences, and what to do about it for inclusion in my next column in the Times Argus and Rutland Herald.

Any suggestions? If so, please leave them in comments.

Here's a preliminary list (in no particular order) compiled through random notes scribbled down.

(Updated below the fold.)

John Michael Greer  wonders whether the Transition Town Movement is engaging in "premature triumphalism." As a part of the initiating group in Transition Town Montpelier, which on Tuesday received official recognition from the international transition folks, I doubt it.

We're happy if people even notice what we're up to.

Luckily, there's a chance Monday for everyone in the central Vermont area to find out more about Transition Towns and judge for themselves. Naresh Giangrande, co-founder of the first Transition Town, Totnes in the UK, will speak on “Transition Towns: From Oil Dependency to Resilient Communities.” The talk is Monday, November 24, 7 pm. Unitarian Church, Main Street, Montpelier. We're being contacted by people as far away as Maine and Massachusetts who want to hear the talk, so come early!

Greer provides a nice summary of the Transition Town movement:

Those of us who follow the details of monthly or weekly oil data reports have long been awaiting the International Energy Agency's 2008 edition of their annual World Energy Outlook. The IEA has long been a cockeyed optimist about future oil availability, along with the US Energy Information Administration. But the IEA has been indicating since this summer that they were revising their future projections of oil availability downward. Would the new report constitute a recognition of imminent peak oil from a Very Official Institution?

The new report came out today.

You can read the slides (PDF) for the presentation to the press or the executive summary (PDF) for free. The full report costs €120 in PDF format. 

Fortunately, the good analysts over at TheOilDrum.com are on the case, with a series of articles over the next couple weeks. Nate Hagens kicked off the series today, with an overview.

The nickel version: The report has a Jekyll-and-Hyde feel of being written by competing camps of urgency and complacency. On the one hand, the IEA warns that global trends in energy supply and consumption are unsustainable, and that an energy revolution is needed. On the other hand, they say that oil is available for world needs for  the next several decades, with sufficient investment. On the third hand, they say that the world needs to bring on line the equivalent of six new Saudi Arabias in the next 22 years--an almost magical feat.

More under the fold.

(I first examined the falling price of oil in August. The price of oil has dropped further, so it's time for another look.)

Someone told me with relief recently that gasoline is $2.99 a gallon. I was reminded of an editorial cartoon in late 2005 or early 2006, showing someone filling up before and after hurricane Katrina. In both pictures, a guy holding a gas nozzle is looking at the pump and exclaiming, "Gas is $2.50 a gallon!" Before Katrina, he has a look of outrage on his face. After Katrina, he wears a broad grin.

Lower gas prices aren't enough to produce many broad grins these days, against the current economic turmoil and the widespread predictions that the economic downturn is likely to get worse and last years. Still, the drop in oil prices is reinforcing some people's beliefs that oil price rises were a speculative bubble.

As with bubbles, the price of oil has gone up and then back down, though only back down a bit. It looks to me like supply and demand are sufficient to explain the price fluctuations.

First, let's look at the big picture: The price of oil is still high.

Shelburne Farms apparently has a policy of not allowing bicycles on the property, or at least groups of bicycles. The Shelburne Farms hostess told the visiting HPV Burlington Bike Fest group on Saturday that she turned down the group's request to visit when a representative first called them. They think the roads are too narrow for bicycles at Shelburne Farms. (I can't figure that one out, since cars are wider than bicycles, but never mind...)

The first caller told HPV Burlington Bike Fest chief organizer Phil Hammerslough what happened, and Phil called the Shelburne Farms hostess. "I know," she said, "You want to know why we don't allow bicycles here."

"No," replied Phil. "I want you to understand that we're not bicycles, we're velomobiles. I'll send you pictures." Twenty minutes later, she called Phil back and said, "Yes, of course, the velomobiles are welcome here." 

And so I joined the dozens of human-powered vehicle (HPV) riders (a.k.a. cyclists) who rode from City Hall Park to Shelburne Farms and back on Saturday, as one part of the HPV Bike Fest. Photos and more explanation below the fold...